Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change

摘要

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) andhalogenated molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons-CFCs) on atmospheric O3depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on thecosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion andthe warming theory of CFCs for climate change. Then natural and anthropogeniccontributions are examined in detail and separated well through in-depthstatistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets. For O3 loss, newstatistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 andstratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients >=0.92.After removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20~25% of theAntarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes hasbeen observed. These results show both the dominance of the CRE mechanism andthe success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depthanalyses of observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-madehalogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth climate change prior to andafter 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearlyzero correlation coefficient (R=-0.05) between global surface temperature andCO2 concentration in 1850-1970. In contrast, a nearly perfect linearcorrelation with R=0.96-0.97 is found between global surface temperature andtotal amount of stratospheric halogenated gases in 1970-2012. Further, a newtheoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases showsthat they (mainly CFCs) could alone lead to the global surface temperature riseof ~0.6 deg C in 1970-2002. These results provide solid evidence that recentglobal warming was indeed caused by anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, aslow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming5~7 decades.